> the H-1B has instead been wielded as a tool by firms to displace American workers and depress wages in the information technology (IT) labor market
This is very hard to square with software professionals being the fastest growing profession both in terms of number of employed workers and earnings in the past 2 decades.
U.S. wages for software professionals are significantly higher than anywhere else in the world and nowhere else has as much software professionals immigration as the U.S.
I’m predicting that the uncertainty and discouragement of H1-Bs will lead to a destruction of jobs in the U.S. and a suppression of salaries as high quality software engineers don’t move to the U.S., allowing the center of gravity of the industry to shift out of the U.S.
Note: This is not to say there aren’t significant issues with the H1B system that need to be addressed. There are. But cutting off the supply of workers in the most remote friendly profession will not lead to an increase in wages. It will lead to an outflow of jobs instead.
> This is very hard to square with software professionals being the fastest growing profession both in terms of number of employed workers and earnings in the past 2 decades.
Just because the wages rose doesn't mean it wasn't suppressed. It's likely wages would have risen even higher without foreign workers increasing the supply of labor. It's simply supply and demand. No?
> I’m predicting that the uncertainty and discouragement of H1-Bs will lead to a destruction of jobs in the U.S. and a suppression of salaries as high quality software engineers don’t move to the U.S., allowing the center of gravity of the industry to shift out of the U.S.
You seem to think that H1-B visas made the US the center of the tech world. It didn't. The US was the center of the world long before H1-B visas existed. Besides, if such a shift were possible, why wouldn't india hold onto their workers and become the center of the industry? Because India is incapable of being the center of anything. What region has the geopolitical clout along financial, cultural, scientific and military importance to become the center of the tech industry? India? Europe? China? Laughable isn't it?
The bigger problem with the H1B system is family reunification. 65,000 H1B visas a year is not that many. But because H1B is a path to citizenship in practice, just one skilled worker eventually will bring in many more family members who aren’t filtered for skills.
When we came to the U.S. in 1989–on my dad’s H1 visa—there were under 10,000 Bangladeshis in the country. Today, there are 270,000. Those aren’t 270,000 highly skilled and highly motivated workers. They’re here based on chain migration from handful of original skilled workers.
To be clear, ANY US Citizen or Permanant Resident can eventually bring in some families after an arduous and long process.
This is a non-existent issue with H1-B.
The current wait times for an H1-B from the Rest of the World(ROW) is around 10+ years to be a citizen.
For India/China/Mexico, it's around 12-27 years to become a Permanent Resident if they applied for their I-140 before 2020.
If they applied after 2020, it's currently estimated at 34-75 years!
On paper, H1B is a temporary worker program that requires non-immigrant intent. In practice, there is a legal fiction called “dual intent” that allows H1Bs to apply for a green card without violating the requirement of non-immigrant intent. Once a permanent resident, they can sponsor spouses and adult children for permanent residency. Once a citizen, they can sponsor parents and siblings.
The U.S. gave my dad an H1 visa, which resulted in 8 other Bangladeshis moving to the U.S. If my mom wasn’t antisocial, she could’ve sponsored her dozen siblings, who could’ve then sponsored their children. That’s how you end up with ethnic enclaves like Little Bangladesh.
Let's be a bit clear on the timelines though. Right now if you get an H1B to the US (good luck), it's 10+ years before you could get citizenship, and that's assuming your employer sponsors you and you get an EB- green card. You could then bring your parents within a few years, but it would be like another 15+ year wait to get your siblings in on an F-4 visa.
So it's not like folks are getting an H1B and then shipping over their entire families on the next boat, it's decades depending on their relationship to you.
Worked well for the postwar periods and the 60s, but not so much today when US economic output (outside tech and white collar services) has been middling at best.
It becomes a problem when the population of the developing nations outnumber the developed 100 to one. And im not talking about those inside the USA, im talking about worldwide. Id love to let them all in. Ive been to third world countries and I can't fault any individual for doing what they can to leave. But the current system can't support a borderless world.
So you want talented individuals to come in to prop up the economy for decades with their output, but forbid them trying to establish a normal family life in the country?
> the H-1B has instead been wielded as a tool by firms to displace American workers and depress wages in the information technology (IT) labor market
This is very hard to square with software professionals being the fastest growing profession both in terms of number of employed workers and earnings in the past 2 decades.
U.S. wages for software professionals are significantly higher than anywhere else in the world and nowhere else has as much software professionals immigration as the U.S.
I’m predicting that the uncertainty and discouragement of H1-Bs will lead to a destruction of jobs in the U.S. and a suppression of salaries as high quality software engineers don’t move to the U.S., allowing the center of gravity of the industry to shift out of the U.S.
Note: This is not to say there aren’t significant issues with the H1B system that need to be addressed. There are. But cutting off the supply of workers in the most remote friendly profession will not lead to an increase in wages. It will lead to an outflow of jobs instead.
> This is very hard to square with software professionals being the fastest growing profession both in terms of number of employed workers and earnings in the past 2 decades.
Just because the wages rose doesn't mean it wasn't suppressed. It's likely wages would have risen even higher without foreign workers increasing the supply of labor. It's simply supply and demand. No?
> I’m predicting that the uncertainty and discouragement of H1-Bs will lead to a destruction of jobs in the U.S. and a suppression of salaries as high quality software engineers don’t move to the U.S., allowing the center of gravity of the industry to shift out of the U.S.
You seem to think that H1-B visas made the US the center of the tech world. It didn't. The US was the center of the world long before H1-B visas existed. Besides, if such a shift were possible, why wouldn't india hold onto their workers and become the center of the industry? Because India is incapable of being the center of anything. What region has the geopolitical clout along financial, cultural, scientific and military importance to become the center of the tech industry? India? Europe? China? Laughable isn't it?
The bigger problem with the H1B system is family reunification. 65,000 H1B visas a year is not that many. But because H1B is a path to citizenship in practice, just one skilled worker eventually will bring in many more family members who aren’t filtered for skills.
When we came to the U.S. in 1989–on my dad’s H1 visa—there were under 10,000 Bangladeshis in the country. Today, there are 270,000. Those aren’t 270,000 highly skilled and highly motivated workers. They’re here based on chain migration from handful of original skilled workers.
To be clear, ANY US Citizen or Permanant Resident can eventually bring in some families after an arduous and long process.
This is a non-existent issue with H1-B.
The current wait times for an H1-B from the Rest of the World(ROW) is around 10+ years to be a citizen. For India/China/Mexico, it's around 12-27 years to become a Permanent Resident if they applied for their I-140 before 2020. If they applied after 2020, it's currently estimated at 34-75 years!
The family reunification pathway is available to all US citizens and permanent residents. This isn't a "problem with the H1B system" per se.
Why is that a problem?
How does this work, exactly? What is the law that allows relatives of H1B to become citizens?
On paper, H1B is a temporary worker program that requires non-immigrant intent. In practice, there is a legal fiction called “dual intent” that allows H1Bs to apply for a green card without violating the requirement of non-immigrant intent. Once a permanent resident, they can sponsor spouses and adult children for permanent residency. Once a citizen, they can sponsor parents and siblings.
The U.S. gave my dad an H1 visa, which resulted in 8 other Bangladeshis moving to the U.S. If my mom wasn’t antisocial, she could’ve sponsored her dozen siblings, who could’ve then sponsored their children. That’s how you end up with ethnic enclaves like Little Bangladesh.
Let's be a bit clear on the timelines though. Right now if you get an H1B to the US (good luck), it's 10+ years before you could get citizenship, and that's assuming your employer sponsors you and you get an EB- green card. You could then bring your parents within a few years, but it would be like another 15+ year wait to get your siblings in on an F-4 visa.
So it's not like folks are getting an H1B and then shipping over their entire families on the next boat, it's decades depending on their relationship to you.
For a family going without relatives, a couple decades may be an eternity. For a nation-state, a couple decades is the blink of an eye.
In the case of the H1-B visa holder's children, the Birthright Citizenship Clause of the 14th amendment.
Basic US immigration law: once a permanent resident or a citizen, a former H1B holder can bring his relatives, like any US citizen
And that's where the trouble is.
Worked well for the postwar periods and the 60s, but not so much today when US economic output (outside tech and white collar services) has been middling at best.
It always add astonishes me how bots live their lives. Only ever seeing things in terms of fictional economies.
We needn't worry about soulless AIs, we've got heartless Humans running amock.
It becomes a problem when the population of the developing nations outnumber the developed 100 to one. And im not talking about those inside the USA, im talking about worldwide. Id love to let them all in. Ive been to third world countries and I can't fault any individual for doing what they can to leave. But the current system can't support a borderless world.
So you want talented individuals to come in to prop up the economy for decades with their output, but forbid them trying to establish a normal family life in the country?
> when the population of the developing nations outnumber the developed 100 to one
Well it's only 7:1 right now. It's never going to be 100:1. Don't worry about it.